Working Paper: NBER ID: w31914
Authors: Jess Fernández-Villaverde; Gustavo Ventura; Wen Yao
Abstract: GDP growth per capita and GDP growth per working-age adult have become quite different in advanced economies. Countries with lackluster GDP growth per capita, such as Japan, have performed well in working-age adult terms. Furthermore, many advanced economies are on parallel growth trajectories in working-age adult terms despite differences in levels. We calibrate a standard growth model in which the growth of the working-age adult population varies in line with the data. The calibrated model tracks output per working-age adult in most cases. We conclude that the growth of mature, aging economies is not puzzling from a theoretical perspective.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: E20; J10
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Working-age population dynamics (J11) | Economic output (E23) |
| Declining working-age population (J26) | Lower total GDP growth (F62) |
| Demographic changes (J11) | Economic performance (P17) |