Working Paper: NBER ID: w31885
Authors: Timothy J. Moore; William W. Olney; Benjamin Hansen
Abstract: The U.S. opioid crisis is now driven by fentanyl, a powerful synthetic opioid that currently accounts for 90% of all opioid deaths. Fentanyl is smuggled from abroad, with little evidence of how this happens. We find a positive relationship between state-level imports and drug overdoses, which is consistent with fentanyl smuggling occurring via legal trade flows. This relationship accounts for 14,000-20,000 deaths per year, and is not explained by geographic differences in “deaths of despair,” general demand for opioids, or import competition. Our results suggest that fentanyl smuggling via imports is pervasive and a key determinant of recent opioid problems.
Keywords: opioid crisis; fentanyl; international trade; drug overdoses
JEL Codes: F1; F6; I1; K4
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Imports (F14) | Fentanyl Overdoses (Y50) |
| Imports (F14) | Opioid Deaths (I12) |
| Imports (F14) | Drug Overdose Deaths (I12) |
| Higher Imports (F14) | Increased Overdose Rates (I12) |
| State Characteristics (H73) | Relationship Between Imports and Fentanyl Overdoses (F10) |