Working Paper: NBER ID: w31874
Authors: Zsfia L. Brany; Moshe Buchinsky; Pauline Corblet
Abstract: It is generally agreed upon that most individuals who acquire a college degree do so in their early 20s. Despite this consensus, we show that in the US from the 1930 birth cohort onwards a large fraction – around 20% – of college graduates obtained their degree after age 30. We explore the implications of this phenomenon. First, we show that these so-called late bloomers have significantly contributed to the narrowing of gender and racial gaps in the college share, despite the general widening of the racial gap. Second, late bloomers are responsible for more than half of the increase in the aggregate college share from 1960 onwards. Finally, we show that the returns to having a college degree vary depending on the age at graduation. Ignoring the existence of late bloomers therefore leads to a significant underestimation of the returns to college education for those finishing college in their early 20s.
Keywords: late bloomers; educational attainment; gender gaps; racial gaps; returns to education
JEL Codes: I20; I26; J30
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| late bloomers (J26) | narrowing gender and racial gaps in college attainment (I24) |
| late bloomers (J26) | overall increase in aggregate college share (D29) |
| age of graduation (A23) | wage outcomes (J31) |
| failing to account for late bloomers (D29) | underestimation of returns to college education for early graduates (I26) |