Working Paper: NBER ID: w31837
Authors: Charles I. Jones
Abstract: Advances in artificial intelligence (A.I.) are a double-edged sword. On the one hand, they may increase economic growth as A.I. augments our ability to innovate. On the other hand, many experts worry that these advances entail existential risk: creating a superintelligence misaligned with human values could lead to catastrophic outcomes, even possibly human extinction. This paper considers the optimal use of A.I. technology in the presence of these opportunities and risks. Under what conditions should we continue the rapid progress of A.I. and under what conditions should we stop?
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: J17; O40
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| AI (C45) | economic growth (g) (E20) |
| economic growth (g) (E20) | existential risk (st) (D81) |
| AI (C45) | living standards (I31) |
| living standards (I31) | economic growth (g) (E20) |
| existential risk (st) (D81) | consumption gains from AI (F62) |
| risk aversion increases (D81) | marginal utility of consumption declines (D11) |
| AI-induced innovations (O31) | life expectancy (J17) |
| life expectancy (J17) | perceived existential risks (D80) |