Working Paper: NBER ID: w31795
Authors: Treb Allen
Abstract: How does the interplay of geography and political-economic forces affect the shape of nations? This paper presents a quantitative framework for characterizing the equilibrium evolution of national boundaries in a world with a rich geography. The framework delivers simple equilibrium conditions based on the efficient transportation of resources that arise from disparate political economic micro-foundations. I characterize the existence, uniqueness, and efficiency of the equilibrium and provide a simple algorithm for its calculation. When combined with detailed spatial geography data from Europe, the equilibrium conditions well approximate observed borders, and the framework is able to successfully predict the evolution of national boundaries and resulting conflict over the past millennia. Finally, I apply the framework to ask how the changing spatial distribution of resources arising from climate change may alter European borders in the future, finding that the Crimean peninsula and surrounding area is especially susceptible.
Keywords: Geography; Political Economy; National Boundaries; Climate Change
JEL Codes: F1; N4; N43; N7; P0; R4
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| efficient transportation of resources (L91) | allocation of territory (H77) |
| transportation costs (L91) | allocation of territory (H77) |
| borders located halfway between neighboring capitals (F55) | spatial equilibrium (D50) |
| resource distribution (Q21) | national size (F52) |
| changes in resource distribution due to climate change (Q54) | territorial conflicts (D74) |
| framework predicts future changes in borders due to climate change (F55) | changes in nationality (F22) |