Working Paper: NBER ID: w31794
Authors: Ilyana Kuziemko; Nicolas Longuet-Marx; Suresh Naidu
Abstract: We argue that the Democratic Party’s evolution on economic policy helps explain partisan realignment by education. We show that less-educated Americans differentially demand “predistribution” policies (e.g., a federal jobs guarantee, higher minimum wages, protectionism, and stronger unions), while more-educated Americans differentially favor redistribution (taxes and transfers). This educational gradient in policy preferences has been largely unchanged since the 1940s. We then show the Democrats’ supply of predistribution has declined since the 1970s. We tie this decline to the rise of a self-described “New Democrat” party faction who court more educated voters and are explicitly skeptical of predistribution. Consistent with this faction’s growing influence, we document the significant growth of donations from highly educated donors, especially from out-of-district donors, who play an increasingly important role in Democratic (especially “New Democrat”) primary campaigns relative to Republican primaries. In response to these within-party changes in power, less-educated Americans began to leave the Democratic Party in the 1970s, after decades of serving as the party’s base. Roughly half of the total shift can be explained by their changing views of the parties’ economic policies. We also show that in the crucial transition period of the 1970s and 1980s, New Democrat-aligned candidates draw disproportionately from more-educated voters in both survey questions and actual Congressional elections.
Keywords: Economic Policy; Partisan Realignment; Education; Predistribution
JEL Codes: H20; J00; P00
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Educational Attainment (I21) | Preferences for Economic Policies (E69) |
| Decline in Predistribution Policies (D39) | Rise of New Democrat Faction (D72) |
| Changing Economic Preferences of Less-Educated Voters (J79) | Shift in Party Identification (J79) |
| New Democrat Candidates (D79) | Attraction of More Educated Voters (D79) |