Working Paper: NBER ID: w31738
Authors: Jerome Apt; Dennis Epple; Fallaw Sowell
Abstract: Quantifying factors giving rise to temporal variation in forest fires is important for advancing scientific understanding and improving fire prevention. We demonstrate that eighty percent of the large year-to-year variation in forest area burned in California can be accounted for by variation in temperature, precipitation, housing construction, electricity transmission, and ocean surface temperatures in the North Atlantic, North Pacific, and Equatorial Pacific. California is of particular interest because of its large acreage burned and proximity of fires to human populations. We believe our model is the first unified treatment of climatic factors and human activities that affect forest area burned.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: Q23; Q53; Q54
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| structural break (2020-2021) (L16) | parameters of analysis (C38) |
| temperature (Y60) | forest area burned (Q23) |
| precipitation (Q54) | forest area burned (Q23) |
| housing construction (L74) | forest area burned (Q23) |
| electricity transmission (L94) | forest area burned (Q23) |
| ocean surface temperatures (North Atlantic, North Pacific, Equatorial Pacific) (O56) | forest area burned (Q23) |