Working Paper: NBER ID: w31733
Authors: Lindsey R. Bullinger; Analisa Packham; Kerri M. Raissian
Abstract: We estimate the effects of cash transfers on a severe measure of child welfare: maltreatment. To do so, we leverage year-to-year household variation from a universal and unconditional cash transfer, the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD). Using linked individual-level administrative data on PFD payments and child maltreatment referrals, we show that an additional $1,000 to families in the first few months of a child's life reduces the likelihood that a child is referred to Child Protective Services by age three by 2.0 percentage points, or 10 percent, on average. Estimates indicate that additional cash transfers also reduce child mortality.
Keywords: cash transfers; child welfare; maltreatment; universal basic income
JEL Codes: I18; I38; K42
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Cash transfers (F16) | reduced likelihood of child maltreatment (J12) |
| Additional $1,000 (M52) | reduced likelihood of being referred to child protective services (I38) |
| Additional $1,000 (M52) | reduced likelihood of child death by age five (I14) |
| Cash transfers (F16) | improved family stability and caregiving dynamics (J12) |
| Improved family stability and caregiving dynamics (J12) | reduced likelihood of child maltreatment (J12) |