Working Paper: NBER ID: w3171
Authors: Robert B. Barsky; J. Bradford De Long
Abstract: The major bull and bear markets of this century have suggested to many that large decade-to-decade stock market swings reflect irrational "fads and fashions" that periodically sweep investors. We argue instead that investors have perceived significant shifts in the long-run mean rate of future dividend growth. and that stock prices depend sufficiently sensitively on expectations about the underlying future growth rate that these perceived shifts would plausibly generate large swings like those of the twentieth century. We go on to document that analysts who have often been viewed as "smart money" held assessments of fundamental values based on their perceptions of future economic growth and technological progress: the judgments of these analysts, like the assessments of fundamentals we generate from simple dividend growth forecasting rules, track the major decade-to-decade swings in the market rather closely.
Keywords: stock market; bull markets; bear markets; dividend growth; investor expectations
JEL Codes: G12; E44
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| perceived changes in future dividend growth (G35) | stock price fluctuations (G17) |
| analysts' expectations (D84) | stock prices (G12) |
| fundamental assessments (I31) | investor behavior (G41) |
| expectations of real dividends (G35) | stock prices sensitivity (G12) |