Working Paper: NBER ID: w31619
Authors: Joseph Engelberg; Runjing Lu; William Mullins; Richard R. Townsend
Abstract: We document political sentiment effects on US inventors. Democratic inventors are more likely to patent (relative to Republicans) after the 2008 election of Obama but less likely after the 2016 election of Trump. These effects are 2-3 times as strong among politically active partisans and are present even within firms over time. Patenting by immigrant inventors (relative to non-immigrants) also falls following Trump’s election. Finally, we show partisan concentration by technology class and firm. This concentration aggregates up to more patenting in Democrat-dominated technologies (e.g., Biotechnology) compared to Republican-dominated technologies (e.g., Weapons) following the 2008 election of Obama.
Keywords: Political Sentiment; Innovation; Patenting; Productivity; Partisanship
JEL Codes: D72; J24; M5; O31
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Political sentiment (D72) | Productivity (O49) |
| Election outcome (K16) | Patenting probabilities of Republican and Democratic inventors (D72) |
| Obama's election (K16) | Likelihood of patenting for active Democrats (K16) |
| Trump's election (K16) | Likelihood of patenting for Democrats (K16) |
| Trump's election (K16) | Likelihood of patenting for immigrant patenters (K37) |
| Political activity level (D72) | Effects on patenting behavior (O38) |
| Obama's election (K16) | Quality of patents from Democrats (D72) |
| Trump's election (K16) | Quality of patents from Democrats (D72) |