Working Paper: NBER ID: w31585
Authors: Rainer Kotschy; David E. Bloom
Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which changes in working-age shares associated with population aging might slow economic growth in upcoming years. We first analyze the economic effects of changing working-age shares in a standard empirical growth model using country panel data from 1950–2015. We then juxtapose the estimates with predicted shifts in population age structure to project economic growth in 2020–2050. Our results indicate that population aging will slow economic growth throughout much of the world. Expansions of labor supply due to improvements in functional capacity among older people can cushion much of this demographic drag.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: I15; J11; O11; O47
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| working-age share (J21) | income per capita (D31) |
| working-age share (J21) | economic growth (O49) |
| population aging (J11) | economic growth (O49) |
| gains in functional capacity among older individuals (J14) | economic growth (O49) |
| shifts in population age structure (J11) | economic growth (O49) |