Working Paper: NBER ID: w31581
Authors: Keith Finlay; Matthew Gross; Carl Lieberman; Elizabeth Luh; Michael G. Muellersmith
Abstract: We estimate the impact of financial sanctions in the U.S. criminal justice system using nine distinct natural experiments across five states. These regression discontinuity designs capture a range of enforcement levels ($17–$6,000) and institutional environments, providing robust causal evidence and external validity. We leverage survey and administrative data to consider a variety of short and long-term outcomes including employment, recidivism, household expenditures, spousal spillovers, and other self-reported measures of well-being. We find consistent, robust evidence of precise null effects on the population, including ruling out long-run impacts larger than -$347–$168 in annual earnings and -0.002–0.01 in annual convictions.
Keywords: financial sanctions; criminal justice system; recidivism; employment; legal financial obligations
JEL Codes: H72; J24; K42
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Financial sanctions (F38) | Employment (J68) |
| Financial sanctions (F38) | Recidivism (K14) |
| Financial sanctions (F38) | Total earnings on W2 tax returns (J31) |
| Financial sanctions (F38) | Self-reported total income (D31) |
| Financial sanctions (F38) | Monthly housing costs (R21) |
| Financial sanctions (F38) | Commuting patterns (R41) |
| Financial sanctions (F38) | Spillover effects on romantic partners (J12) |