Working Paper: NBER ID: w31562
Authors: Efraim Benmelech; Joao Monteiro
Abstract: We study the effectiveness of government aid to exporters by exploring an exogenous shock that affected the ability of the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) to provide aid to U.S. exporters through loan guarantees to importers. We focus on Boeing, the largest individual recipient of aid. We find that Boeing sales declined only modestly – despite Boeing’s significant reliance on EXIM for export credit. Moreover, we find that this decline is driven by financially constrained airlines or by airlines operating in countries with underdeveloped financial systems. We show that airlines in developed countries were easily able to substitute EXIM guaranteed loans for private credit and thus could still purchase Boeing aircraft despite the EXIM shock. Our results are consistent with the view that government-sponsored export credit is mostly relevant for importers in countries with underdeveloped financial systems, which represent a relatively small share of total EXIM aid.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: F14; F34; G28; G31; L93
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Exim's loan guarantees (H81) | increased sales of Boeing aircraft (L93) |
| increased sales of Boeing aircraft (L93) | airlines with alternative credit sources (L93) |
| shock to Exim's ability to provide loan guarantees (H81) | modest decline in Boeing's sales (L93) |
| airlines in developed countries (L93) | no decline in Boeing deliveries (L93) |
| airlines in underdeveloped financial systems (L93) | significant drop in deliveries (L87) |
| liquidity ratios (G33) | purchasing behavior of airlines (L93) |
| low liquidity ratios (G33) | sharp declines in Boeing purchases (L93) |
| high liquidity ratios (G33) | maintained Boeing purchases (L93) |