Working Paper: NBER ID: w31531
Authors: David Escamilla-Guerrero; Edward Kosack; Zachary Ward
Abstract: The number of individuals forcibly displaced by conflicts has been rising in the past few decades. However, we know little about the dynamics—magnitude, timing, and persistence—of conflict-induced migration in the short run. We use novel high-frequency data to estimate the dynamic migration response to conflict for the case of the Mexican Revolution (1910-1917), one of the deadliest conflicts in world history. We find that, on average, insurgency events led to a large increase in migration rates of about 60 percent that lasted for a few months: after five months, migration rates reverted back to pre-violence levels. This finding masks substantial heterogeneity in treatment effects, as we find larger and more persistent effects for women and children. We show that violence was the main treatment channel, with variation in the intensity and nature of violence explaining the magnitude and persistence of the migration response. While migration costs, migrant networks, and land ownership moderated the migration response to conflict, we show that these factors affect different aspects of the response.
Keywords: Mexican Revolution; migration; violence; insurgency; demographic response
JEL Codes: F22; N31; N32; N36
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Insurgency events (D74) | Migration rates (F22) |
| Intensity of violence (D74) | Migration rates (F22) |
| Military casualties (H56) | Intensity of violence (D74) |
| Migration costs (F22) | Migration rates (F22) |
| Existing migrant networks (F22) | Migration rates (F22) |
| Distance from border (F55) | Migration rates (F22) |
| Land ownership structures (Q15) | Migration rates (F22) |
| Conflict events (D74) | Migration rates (F22) |