Working Paper: NBER ID: w31440
Authors: Ran Abramitzky; Leah Platt Boustan; Elisa Jcome; Santiago Prez; Juan David Torres
Abstract: We provide the first nationally representative long-run series (1870–2020) of incarceration rates for immigrants and the US-born. As a group, immigrants have had lower incarceration rates than the US-born for 150 years. Moreover, relative to the US-born, immigrants’ incarceration rates have declined since 1960: immigrants today are 60% less likely to be incarcerated (30% relative to US-born whites). This relative decline occurred among immigrants from all regions and cannot be explained by changes in immigrants’ observable characteristics or immigration policy. Instead, the decline is part of a broader divergence of outcomes between less-educated immigrants and their US-born counterparts.
Keywords: immigration; incarceration; crime; economic history
JEL Codes: K4; N31
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| structural economic changes (L16) | decline in incarceration rates among immigrants (K37) |
| economic shocks (F69) | decline in incarceration rates among immigrants (K37) |
| decline in incarceration rates among immigrants (K37) | divergence from US-born men in incarceration propensity (J79) |
| decline in incarceration rates among immigrants (K37) | divergence from US-born men in labor force participation (J49) |
| decline in incarceration rates among immigrants (K37) | divergence from US-born men in marriage likelihood (J12) |
| decline in incarceration rates among immigrants (K37) | divergence from US-born men in health outcomes (I14) |