Working Paper: NBER ID: w31423
Authors: Jonathan Gruber; Mengyun Lin; Junjian Yi
Abstract: The New Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) rolled out in China from 2003-2008 provided insurance to 800 million rural Chinese. We combine aggregate mortality data with individual survey data, and identify the impact of the NCMS from program rollout and heterogeneity across areas in their rural share. We find that there was a significant decline in aggregate mortality, with the program saving more than one million lives per year at its peak, and explaining 78% of the entire increase in life expectancy in China over this period. We confirm these mortality effects using micro-data on mortality, other health outcomes, and utilization.
Keywords: health insurance; China; NCMS; mortality; life expectancy
JEL Codes: H4; I13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| NCMS (Y90) | aggregate mortality rates (J11) |
| NCMS (Y90) | life expectancy (J17) |
| NCMS (Y90) | healthcare utilization (I11) |
| NCMS (Y90) | elderly mortality (J26) |
| NCMS (Y90) | increase in life expectancy observed in China from 2003 to 2010 (I14) |