Working Paper: NBER ID: w31240
Authors: Laura Alfaro; Maggie Chen; Davin Chor
Abstract: We investigate whether and how evidence-based information—a concise statement of a research finding—can shape preferences for trade policies. Across survey experiments conducted over 2018-2022 on U.S. general population samples, information highlighting the link between trade and manufacturing job losses consistently raises expressed support for limits on trade. More strikingly, we find novel evidence of a backfire effect to information emphasizing the job gains in comparative advantage sectors or the price benefits from freer trade: exposure to such information induces protectionist policy choices, particularly among Republicans; this, in turn, further polarizes Republicans' and Democrats' preferences on trade policy, consistent with implications we derive from a model of prior-biased belief updating. Efforts to communicate the benefits of trade can thus have unintended consequences; averting these will require addressing prior beliefs and broadly-held concerns over the impact of trade on jobs and over trade with China.
Keywords: trade policy; evidence-based information; preferences; survey experiments; political identity
JEL Codes: D8; F1; F6
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| exposure to the 'trade hurts jobs' narrative (F66) | support for protectionist policies (F13) |
| information highlighting the benefits of trade (F10) | support for protectionist measures (F13) |
| political identity (Republican) (D72) | protectionist preferences when exposed to narratives about trade (F52) |
| political identity (Democratic) (D72) | dampened protectionist response (F69) |