Working Paper: NBER ID: w31236
Authors: Anne Case; Angus Deaton
Abstract: We examine mortality differences between Americans with and without a four-year college degree over the period 1992 to 2021. From 1992 to 2010, both groups saw falling mortality, but with greater improvements for the more educated; from 2010 to 2019, mortality fell for those with a BA and rose for those without; from 2019 to 2021, mortality rose for both groups, but more rapidly for the less educated. In consequence, the mortality gap between the two groups rose in all three periods, unevenly until 2010, faster between 2010 to 2019, and explosively during the pandemic. The overall period saw dramatic changes in patterns of mortality, but gaps rose consistently, not only in all-cause mortality, but in each of thirteen broad classifications of cause of death. Gaps increased for causes of death whose rates have risen in the last thirty years, whose rates have fallen in the last thirty years, and whose rates fell and then rose. Gaps rose for causes where rates were originally higher for those without a BA, and where rates were originally lower for those without a BA. Although mechanisms and stories are different for each cause of death, the widening gap is seen throughout.
Keywords: mortality; education; health disparities; COVID-19; deaths of despair
JEL Codes: I10; I14; I26; J10
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Education (I29) | Health Outcomes (I14) |
| Educational Attainment (I21) | Mortality Outcomes (I12) |
| Deaths of Despair (I12) | Widening Mortality Gap (I14) |
| Socio-Economic Factors (P36) | Mortality Rates for Less-Educated Individuals (I14) |
| Educational Attainment (I21) | Deaths of Despair (I12) |