Working Paper: NBER ID: w31175
Authors: Daniel S. Hamermesh; Learachel Kosnik
Abstract: Using data describing all “Top 5” economics journal publications from 1969-2018, we examine what determines which authors produce less as they age and which retire earlier. Sub-field has no impact on the rate of production, but interacts with it to alter retirement probabilities. A positive, tentative, and contemporary writing style increases persistence in publishing. Authors whose previous work was more heavily cited produce slightly more. Those better-cited with more top-flight publications retire later than others. Declining publication with age arises mostly from habit—there is a very significant increasing positive autocorrelation of publication across the decades of a career.
Keywords: productivity; retirement; academic writing; citations; age
JEL Codes: A14; J26
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Age (J14) | Publication Output (A29) |
| Citation Impact (A14) | Future Productivity (O49) |
| Writing Style (Y20) | Publication Output (A29) |
| Publication Rates (A14) | Likelihood of Retirement (J26) |
| Prior Productivity (O49) | Subsequent Output (Y60) |