Working Paper: NBER ID: w31118
Authors: Wei Xiong
Abstract: This article examines the risks faced by China's real estate sector within its distinct hybrid economy, which combines market mechanisms with comprehensive state planning and government intervention. The real estate sector holds particular importance as land sale revenues are a crucial source of funding for local governments, enabling them to finance infrastructure projects and stimulate economic growth. Banks are highly exposed to debt secured by real estate properties, not only involving real estate firms and households but also extending to local governments and affiliated companies. The hybrid structure gives the government a strong commitment and the ability to delay a real estate crisis. However, China’s real estate risk is ultimately tied to the country’s overall economic growth and remains susceptible to policy-related risks.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: O18; O2; R0
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Real estate sector health (L85) | Local government financing (R51) |
| Local government financing (R51) | Infrastructure development (H54) |
| Infrastructure development (H54) | Economic growth (O00) |
| Central government policies (H59) | Local government behavior (H70) |
| Local government behavior (H70) | Market instability (E32) |
| Slowdown in the real estate sector (R31) | Economic growth risks (F62) |