Working Paper: NBER ID: w31113
Authors: Clare Halloran; Claire E. Hug; Rebecca Jack; Emily Oster
Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant disruption in schooling in the U.S., and student test scores showed dramatic declines by the end of the 2020-21 school year. We use state test score data to analyze patterns of test score recovery over the 2021-22 school year. On average, we find that 20% of test score losses are recovered in English language arts (ELA) by 2022, compared to 37% in math. These recovery rates do not significantly vary across demographic characteristics, baseline achievement rates, in-person schooling rates in the pandemic school year, or category-based measures of recovery funding allocations. We observe large state-level variation in recovery rates in ELA – from full recovery to further losses. This evidence suggests state-level factors play an important role in students' academic recovery, but we are unable to isolate particular state factors. Future work should focus on this variation to facilitate a broader recovery effort.
Keywords: COVID-19; test score recovery; education; state testing data
JEL Codes: I19; I20
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| time (C41) | recovery rates (G33) |
| initial declines in proficiency rates (I21) | subsequent recovery (G33) |
| state-level factors (H73) | recovery rates (G33) |