Working Paper: NBER ID: w31059
Authors: James R. Hines Jr.; Daniel Schaffa
Abstract: Evidence that high tax rates significantly depress capital gains realizations is inconsistent with the implications of neoclassical investment models in unchanging economic environments. Higher tax rates reduce after-tax investment returns, thereby encouraging investors to sell capital assets earlier. For a given investment horizon, higher tax rates need not reward accumulating unrealized gains over long periods – and even if they do, longer accumulations can lead to earlier realizations. Consequently, the sizeable observed effects of capital gains taxes likely reflect investor anticipations of future tax rate changes, rather than the time value of money.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: G11; H24; H31
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| higher capital gains tax rates (F38) | reduced after-tax investment returns (G11) |
| reduced after-tax investment returns (G11) | discourage long-term investments (F21) |
| discourage long-term investments (F21) | earlier realizations (D84) |
| higher capital gains tax rates (F38) | earlier realizations (D84) |