Working Paper: NBER ID: w30934
Authors: Sarah Moshary; Bradley Shapiro; Sara Drango
Abstract: This paper estimates consumer demand for firearms with the aim of predicting the likely impacts of firearm regulations on the number and types of guns in circulation. We first conduct a stated-choice-based conjoint analysis and estimate an individual-level demand model for firearms. We validate our estimates using aggregate moments from observational data. Next, we use our estimates to simulate changes in the number and types of guns in circulation under alternative regulations. Importantly, we find that bans or restrictions that specifically target “assault weapons” increase demand for handguns, which are associated with the vast majority of firearm-related violence. We provide distributions of consumer surplus under counterfactuals and discuss how those distributions could be useful for crafting policy.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: C11; C83; H23; I18; L50; L51; M31; M38
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| assault weapons ban (H56) | increase in demand for handguns (J23) |
| handgun ban (K42) | decrease in overall gun sales (H56) |
| 10% price increase (D49) | decrease in firearm sales (H56) |