Working Paper: NBER ID: w30825
Authors: Afras Y. Sial; Justin R. Sydnor; Dmitry Taubinsky
Abstract: Using data from a field experiment on exercise, we analyze the relationship between imperfect memory and people's awareness of their limited self-control. We find that people overestimate past gym attendance, and that larger overestimation of past attendance is associated with (i) more overestimation of future attendance, (ii) a lower willingness to pay to motivate higher future gym attendance, and (iii) a smaller gap between goal and forecasted attendance. We organize these facts with a structural model of quasi-hyperbolic discounting and naivete, estimating that people with more biased memories are more naive about their time inconsistency, but not more time-inconsistent.
Keywords: self-control; memory bias; field experiment; gym attendance
JEL Codes: D91; I12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| memory bias (D91) | willingness to pay for incentives (J33) |
| upwardly biased memories (D91) | acceptance of commitment contracts (D86) |
| memory bias (D91) | overestimation of past gym attendance (C92) |
| overestimation of past gym attendance (C92) | overestimation of future attendance (C53) |
| memory bias (D91) | awareness of time inconsistency (D15) |