Working Paper: NBER ID: w3081
Authors: Francine D. Blau; Adam J. Grossberg
Abstract: Over the past 30 years, research on married women's labor force participation has concluded virtually without exception that the principal source of labor force participation rate growth for married women has been the concurrent growth of women's real wages. The experience of the 1970's suggests, however, that real wage growth cannot account for the increase In participation rates that occurred during that period. His paper argues that an Important determinant of married women's current participation decisions is the level of uncertainty associated with expectations of future wages, and that high levels of uncertainty during the 1970's may have contributed substantially to the growth in participation that occurred during that time. Engle's model of autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) Is apply led to aggregate time series data covering the years 1956-1986 to measure the level of uncertainty at each point In time. Our estimates Indicate support for the basic hypothesis that the level of uncertainty is an important determinant of labor force participation decisions for married women.
Keywords: Labor Force Participation; Married Women; Wage Uncertainty
JEL Codes: J22; J13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| high levels of uncertainty regarding future wages (J39) | increase in labor force participation rates among married women (J49) |