Working Paper: NBER ID: w30707
Authors: Osea Giuntella; Yi Lu; Tianyi Wang
Abstract: We analyze the effects of exposure to industrial robots on labor markets and household behaviors, exploring longitudinal household data from China. We find that a one standard deviation increase in robot exposure led to a decline in labor force participation (-1%), employment (-7.5%), and hourly wages (-9%) of Chinese workers. At the same time, among those who kept working, robot exposure increased the number of hours worked by 14%. These effects were concentrated among the less educated and larger among men, prime-age, and older workers. We then explore how individuals and families responded to increased exposure to robots. We find that more exposed workers increased their participation in technical training and were significantly more likely to retire earlier. Despite the negative impact on wages and employment, we find no evidence of an effect on consumption or savings, which is explained by an increase in borrowing (+10%). While there is no evidence of an effect on marital behavior, we document that robot exposure led to a small decline in the number of children (-1%). Finally, we find that robot exposure increased family time investment in the education of children (+10%) as well as the investment in children’s after-school academic and extra-curricular activities (+24%).
Keywords: robots; labor market; China; household behavior; automation
JEL Codes: J0
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Robot exposure (Y60) | Probability of being employed (J23) |
| Robot exposure (Y60) | Likelihood of leaving the labor force (J22) |
| Robot exposure (Y60) | Likelihood of reporting unemployment status (J64) |
| Robot exposure (Y60) | Hourly income (J31) |
| Robot exposure (Y60) | Annual income (J31) |
| Robot exposure (Y60) | Work hours (J22) |
| Robot exposure (Y60) | Participation in technical training (M53) |
| Robot exposure (Y60) | Likelihood of early retirement (J26) |
| Robot exposure (Y60) | Borrowing (G51) |
| Robot exposure (Y60) | Family time investment in children's education (G59) |
| Robot exposure (Y60) | Investment in extracurricular activities (D29) |
| Robot exposure (Y60) | Number of children (J13) |