Working Paper: NBER ID: w30624
Authors: Dany Bahar; Bo Cowgill; Jorge Guzman
Abstract: We use administrative data linked to the complete formal business registry to study a 2018 policy shift in Colombia that made nearly half a million Venezuelan undocumented migrants eligible for a resident visa. Immigrants who receive the visa increase their economic activity in the form of higher entrepreneurship by a factor as high as 12, bringing it to parity with native Colombians four years later. To establish causal estimates, we develop a novel extension of a regression discontinuity design. Our design uses variation in the running-variable (coming from rain) to instrument for migrants’ choices to apply for visas.
Keywords: entrepreneurship; immigration; legal status; Colombia; Venezuelan migrants
JEL Codes: J26; K37; L26
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Policy shift (2018 policy shift in Colombia) (F68) | Economic activity (entrepreneurship) (O49) |
| Visa receipt (Permiso Especial de Permanencia, PEP) (Z38) | Economic activity (entrepreneurship) (O49) |
| Visa receipt (Permiso Especial de Permanencia, PEP) (Z38) | Firm creation (L26) |
| Entrepreneurship effect decomposition (L26) | Visa effect (Z38) |
| PEP (Permiso Especial de Permanencia) (J68) | Firm creation over time (L26) |
| New firms by PEP entrepreneurs (L26) | Economic activity (E29) |