Working Paper: NBER ID: w30622
Authors: Jesse M Bruhn; Kyle Greenberg; Matthew Gudgeon; Evan K Rose; Yotam Shemtov
Abstract: As millions of soldiers deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan between 2001 and 2021, Veteran Affairs Disability Compensation payments quadrupled and the veteran suicide rate rose rapidly. We estimate causal effects of combat deployments on soldiers’ well-being. To eliminate non-random selection into deployment, we leverage quasi-random assignment of newly recruited soldiers to units on staggered deployment cycles. Deployments increase injuries, combat deaths, and disability compensation, but we find limited evidence that they affect suicide, deaths of despair, financial health, incarceration, or education. More dangerous deployments have similarly limited effects. Our estimates suggest that deployment cannot explain either the recent rise in disability payments, which is more likely driven by policy changes, or the surge in noncombat deaths, which is better explained by shifts in observable characteristics of soldiers.
Keywords: combat deployments; veterans outcomes; disability compensation; suicide rates; well-being
JEL Codes: F50; I1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| combat deployments (H56) | Veterans Affairs Disability Compensation (VADC) payments (H56) |
| combat deployments (H56) | probability of being wounded in combat (H56) |
| combat deployments (H56) | likelihood of having a documented health condition limiting future service (I12) |
| combat deployments (H56) | non-combat deaths (including suicides) (I12) |
| combat deployments (H56) | increase in VADC payments not solely due to combat-related injuries (H56) |
| observable changes in soldier characteristics (J45) | recent rise in disability payments and surge in non-combat deaths (H56) |