Working Paper: NBER ID: w30593
Authors: David S. Rapson; James B. Bushnell
Abstract: Electrification is a centerpiece of global decarbonization efforts. Yet there are reasons to be skeptical of the inevitability, or at least the optimal pace, of the transition. We discuss several under-appreciated costs of full, or even deep, electrification. Consumer preferences can operate in favor of and in opposition to electrification goals; and electrification is likely to encounter physical and economic obstacles when it reaches some as-yet-unknown level. While we readily acknowledge the external benefits of decarbonization, we also explore several under-appreciated external costs. The credibility and eventual success of decarbonization efforts is enhanced by foreseeing and ideally avoiding predictable but non-obvious costs of promising abatement pathways. Thus, even with all of its promise, the degree of electrification may ultimately reach a limit.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: L43; Q40
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| consumer income (D10) | EV adoption rates (L97) |
| higher EV adoption (R48) | increased costs of electrification (L94) |
| marginal costs of decarbonization through electrification (D61) | exceed current social cost estimates (H43) |