Working Paper: NBER ID: w30567
Authors: Gopi Shah Goda; Emilie Jackson; Lauren Hersch Nicholas; Sarah Stith
Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a large and immediate drop in employment among US workers, along with major expansions of unemployment insurance and work from home. We use Current Population Survey and Social Security application data to study employment among older adults and their participation in disability and retirement insurance programs through the second year of the pandemic. We find ongoing improvements in employment outcomes among older workers in the labor force, along with sustained higher levels in the share no longer in the labor force during this period. Applications for Social Security disability benefits remain depressed, particularly for Supplemental Security Income. In models accounting for the expiration of expanded unemployment insurance, we find some evidence that the loss of these additional financial supports resulted in an increase in disability claiming. Social Security retirement benefit claiming is approximately 3 percent higher during the second year of the pandemic.
Keywords: COVID-19; Older Workers; Employment; Social Security
JEL Codes: H31; H5; J14; J26
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| expiration of expanded unemployment insurance benefits (J65) | increase in SSDI applications (H53) |
| expiration of expanded unemployment insurance benefits (J65) | increase in SSI applications (I38) |
| expiration of expanded unemployment insurance benefits (J65) | reversal of earlier declines in SSDI applications (J65) |
| expiration of expanded unemployment insurance benefits (J65) | increase in social security retirement benefit claiming (H55) |