Estimating Perceptions of the Relative COVID Risk of Different Social-Distancing Behaviors from Respondents' Pairwise Assessments

Working Paper: NBER ID: w30493

Authors: Ori Heffetz; Matthew Rabin

Abstract: How do people compare bundles of social-distancing behaviors? During the COVID pandemic, we showed 676 online respondents in the US, UK, and Israel 30 pairs of brief videos of acquaintances meeting. We asked them to indicate which in each pair depicted greater risk of COVID infection. Their choices imply that on average respondents considered talking 14 minutes longer to be as risky as standing 1 foot closer, being indoors as standing 3 feet closer, and removing a properly worn mask by either party as standing 4–5 feet closer. We explore subpopulations and perceived nonlinear and interacted effects of combined behaviors.

Keywords: COVID-19; social distancing; risk perception; behavioral economics

JEL Codes: C18; C83; I18


Causal Claims Network Graph

Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.


Causal Claims

CauseEffect
increased conversation duration (C41)increased perceived risk of infection (I12)
being indoors (L68)increased perceived risk of infection (I12)
removal of a properly worn mask (Y60)increased perceived risk of infection (I12)
wearing a mask (E71)mutual influence between individual and social risk perceptions (D91)

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