Working Paper: NBER ID: w30474
Authors: Tom Vogl
Abstract: Sub-Saharan Africa exhibits higher fertility and lower education than other world regions. Economic and demographic theory posit that these phenomena are linked, with slow fertility decline connected to slow education growth among both adults and children. Using microdata from 33 African countries, this paper documents the co-evolution of adult education, fertility, and child education in female birth cohorts surrounding the onset of the region's fertility transition. Fertility change displays a robust negative relationship with the educational outcomes of adult women but a more nuanced relationship with the educational outcomes of children. As fertility declines, children's grade attainment rises, but their school enrollment does not. The divergence is partly explained by a split in how women's education relates to fertility and child education. Rising women's education predicts declining fertility and rising children's grade attainment, but it is less systematically linked to enrollment change.
Keywords: fertility; education; human capital; sub-Saharan Africa
JEL Codes: I25; J13; O15
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Declining fertility (J13) | School enrollment rates (I21) |
| Higher women's education (I24) | Lower fertility rates (J13) |
| Declining fertility (J13) | Increased children's grade attainment (I24) |
| Higher women's education (I24) | Increased children's grade attainment (I24) |