Working Paper: NBER ID: w30393
Authors: Francesco Ferlenga; Brian G. Knight
Abstract: This paper develops a new approach to detecting electoral fraud. Our context involves repeaters, individuals voting in multiple states in the U.S. during 19th Century Congressional Elections. Given high travel times, and the associated difficulties of voting in multiple states on the same day, we exploit the staggered introduction of holding federal elections on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November (1T1M). The key finding is that county-level turnout rates fell when the closest neighboring state coordinated on 1T1M. This result is consistent with 1T1M adoption making repeating more difficult. In terms of mechanisms, the pattern is stronger in states that had not yet adopted the secret ballot, consistent with the secret ballot itself reducing voter fraud. The pattern is also driven by smaller population counties, consistent with repeaters particularly inflating turnout rates in these places.
Keywords: electoral fraud; voter turnout; 19th century elections; synchronization of election dates
JEL Codes: D70; H7; P0
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| synchronization of election dates (K16) | county-level turnout rates (K16) |
| 1T1M adoption (O33) | opportunities for repeat voting (D72) |
| synchronization of elections (K16) | repeat voting practices (K16) |
| synchronization of elections in smaller population counties (K16) | turnout reduction (H23) |
| reduction in turnout following synchronization (D79) | southern states (H73) |
| 1T1M adoption (O33) | turnout rates (K16) |
| synchronization of elections (K16) | changes in voting systems (K16) |