Working Paper: NBER ID: w30385
Authors: Maxim N. Massenkoff; Evan K. Rose
Abstract: We use administrative data from Washington State to perform a large-scale analysis of the impact of family formation on crime. Our estimates indicate that pregnancy triggers sharp declines in arrests rivaling any known intervention, supporting the view that childbirth is a "turning point" that reduces deviant behavior through social bonds. For mothers, criminal arrests drop precipitously in the first few months of pregnancy, stabilizing at half of pre-pregnancy levels three years after birth. Men show a sustained 20 percent decline in crime that begins at pregnancy, although arrests for domestic violence spike at birth. These effects are concentrated among first-time parents, suggesting that a permanent change in preferences---rather than transitory time and budget shocks---may be responsible. A separate design using parents of stillborn children to estimate counterfactual arrest rates reinforces the main findings. Marriage, in contrast, is not associated with any sudden changes and marks the completion of a gradual 50 percent decline in arrests for both men and women.
Keywords: family formation; crime; parenthood; arrests; difference-in-differences
JEL Codes: J0; J12; J13; K14
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Pregnancy (J13) | Decreased criminal behavior for mothers (J12) |
| Childbirth (J13) | Decreased arrests for mothers (J12) |
| Pregnancy (J13) | Decreased criminal behavior for fathers (J12) |
| Childbirth (J13) | Decreased arrests for fathers (J12) |
| Childbirth (J13) | Increased domestic violence arrests (J12) |
| Childbirth (J13) | Decreased arrests for other crimes for mothers (J12) |
| Childbirth (J13) | Decreased arrests for other crimes for fathers (J12) |
| First-time parenthood (J13) | Permanent change in preferences (D11) |