Working Paper: NBER ID: w30384
Authors: Ariell Zimran
Abstract: I study the internal migration of native-born white men in the United States using linked census data covering all possible 10- and 20-year periods 1850--1940. Inter-county migration rates were stable over time. Selection into migration on the basis of occupational status was also largely stable and was neutral or slightly negative. But the orientation of internal migration changed, declining in distance, becoming more directed towards the west, and increasingly driving urbanization. These patterns changed in the 1930s as migration became less common and less urban oriented. These results provide a clearer understanding of historic US internal migration than previously possible.
Keywords: internal migration; U.S. history; urbanization; census data
JEL Codes: J61; N31; N32; O15
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| time (C41) | intercounty migration rates (R23) |
| economic conditions (E66) | selection into migration (F22) |
| economic opportunities in the West (N91) | migration patterns (F22) |
| internal migration (F22) | urbanization (R11) |
| urbanization (R11) | internal migration (F22) |
| distance of migration (F22) | destination choices (Z30) |
| labor market conditions (J29) | migration dynamics (J61) |
| demographic shifts (J11) | migration dynamics (J61) |
| migration rates in the 1930s (J61) | historical narrative of U.S. internal migration (R23) |