Working Paper: NBER ID: w30232
Authors: Andrew Foote; Kevin M. Stange
Abstract: This paper examines the bias arising from individuals’ migration from administrative outcome data, with a focus on the labor market consequences of postsecondary education. We find that out-of-state migration is particularly problematic for high-earners, flagship graduates, and certain majors. Consequently, the effect of graduating from a flagship university is 10% higher than one would estimate using in-state earnings exclusively, though the extent of bias differs substantially across contexts. The impact of obtaining a 2-year CTE credential is also understated, as are earnings differences across majors. Approaches to testing for and bounding this bias are considered.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: I26; J31; J61
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| migration correlated with college major and institutional selectivity (J61) | bias in earnings estimates (C51) |
| out-of-state migration (F22) | bias in earnings estimates of flagship university graduates (D29) |
| out-of-state migration (F22) | bias in earnings premium of engineering relative to psychology (G41) |
| out-of-state migration (F22) | understatement of earnings gain from CTE at public two-year college (A22) |
| differential out-of-state migration (J61) | bias in earnings estimates (C51) |