Working Paper: NBER ID: w30204
Authors: Ran Abramitzky; Travis Baseler; Isabelle Sin
Abstract: How does persecution affect who migrates? We analyze migrants’ self-selection out of the USSR and its satellite states before and after the collapse of Communism using census microdata from the three largest destination countries: Germany, Israel, and the United States. We find that migrants arriving before and around the time of the collapse (who were more likely to have moved because of persecution) were more educated and had better labor market outcomes in the destination than those arriving later. This change is not fully explained by the removal of emigration restrictions in the Communist Bloc. Instead, we show that this pattern is consistent with more positive self-selection of migrants who are motivated by persecution. When the highly educated disproportionately forgo migrating to enjoy the amenities of their home country, persecution can induce them to leave.
Keywords: migration; persecution; self-selection; refugees; communist bloc
JEL Codes: F22; J6; N30; N32; N34
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| persecution (P26) | likelihood of migration (F22) |
| higher levels of education (I23) | likelihood of migration (F22) |
| persecution (P26) | better labor market outcomes (J48) |
| migration before and around the collapse of communism (F22) | better labor market outcomes (J48) |
| persecution (P26) | enhanced self-selection of migrants (F22) |
| removal of restrictions (Y50) | decrease in average education level of migrants (I25) |
| persecution (P26) | higher educational attainment of late refugees (I25) |
| high human capital individuals (J24) | remain in home country unless persecution increases (F22) |