Working Paper: NBER ID: w30201
Authors: Joanna N. Lahey; Marianne H. Wanamaker
Abstract: Recent studies based on 20th century US data conclude that abortion access raises children’s average socioeconomic outcomes. We generalize a model of fertility, highlighting assumptions under which these abortion predictions can be reversed. Using 19th century abortion restrictions, we empirically demonstrate these points. Despite a more than 5 percent increase in birth rates among abortion-restricted cohorts, we find little evidence of negative selection at birth. Longevity was affected nevertheless; in the first ten years of life, children in these larger cohorts died of infectious disease more frequently. These mortality effects diminish with age, potentially reversing at older ages as a result of disease immunity or other offsetting factors.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: H75; J1; J13; J16; J18; K14; K15; K38; N3; N31; N4; N41
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| abortion-restricting laws (J18) | socioeconomic outcomes (I24) |
| abortion-restricting laws (J18) | birth rates (J11) |
| larger cohort sizes (C92) | mortality rates from infectious diseases (I12) |
| abortion-restricting laws (J18) | larger cohort sizes (C92) |
| larger cohort sizes (C92) | improved survival rates later in life (I12) |