Working Paper: NBER ID: w30198
Authors: Danae Hernandez-Cortes; Kyle C. Meng; Paige E. Weber
Abstract: This paper quantifies and decomposes recent trends in U.S. PM2.5 disparities from the electricity sector using a high-resolution pollution transport model. Between 2000-2018, PM2.5 concentrations from electricity fell by 89% for the average individual, more than double the decline rate in overall U.S. ambient PM2.5 concentrations. Across racial/ethnic groups, we detect a dramatic convergence: since 2000, the Black-White PM2.5 disparity from electricity has narrowed by 95% and the Hispanic-White PM2.5 disparity has narrowed by 93%, though these disparities still exist in 2018. A decomposition reveals nearly all of these disparity trends can be attributed roughly equally to improvements in emissions intensities and compositional changes in electric generators, with small contributions from scale and residential location changes. This suggests both local air pollution policies and recent coal-to-natural gas fuel switching have played major roles in reducing U.S. racial/ethnic pollution disparities from electricity. While we detect similarly large PM2.5 improvements for the average low and high income individual, PM2.5 disparities by income are relatively small, with little change over time.
Keywords: Air Pollution; Environmental Justice; Electricity Sector; PM2.5 Disparities
JEL Codes: H4; I14; Q5; Q51; Q52; Q53; Q54
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| improvements in emissions intensity (L94) | reduction in PM2.5 disparities (I14) |
| compositional changes in electric generators (L94) | reduction in PM2.5 disparities (I14) |
| reductions in PM2.5 concentrations from electricity (L94) | narrowing of black-white PM2.5 disparity (R23) |
| reductions in PM2.5 concentrations from electricity (L94) | narrowing of Hispanic-white PM2.5 disparity (I14) |
| switch from coal to natural gas (Q35) | reduction in PM2.5 disparities (I14) |