Working Paper: NBER ID: w30192
Authors: Susan Athey; Juan Camilo Castillo; Esha Chaudhuri; Michael Kremer; Alexandre Simoes Gomes; Christopher Snyder
Abstract: We review economic arguments for using public policy to accelerate vaccine supply during a pandemic. Rapidly vaccinating a large share of the global population helps avoid economic, mortality, and social losses, which in the case of Covid-19 mounted into trillions of dollars. However, pharmaceutical firms are unlikely to have private incentives to invest in vaccine capacity at the socially optimal scale and speed. The socially optimal level of public spending may cause some sticker shock but—as epitomized by the tagline “spending billions to save trillions”—is eclipsed by the benefits and can be restrained with the help of careful policy design and advance preparations. Capacity is so valuable during a pandemic that fractional dosing and other measures to stretch available capacity should be explored.
Keywords: COVID-19; Vaccines; Public Policy; Economic Impact; Pandemic Preparedness
JEL Codes: D47; H44; I15; I18; O31
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| vaccine capacity investment (E22) | economic stability (E63) |
| vaccination rates (I14) | economic mortality and social losses (J17) |
| increased capacity (E22) | reduced pandemic harm (H12) |
| investing in vaccine capacity (E22) | faster vaccination (I19) |
| faster vaccination (I19) | faster economic recovery (E65) |
| doubling vaccine capacity (E22) | halving time to reach herd immunity (C41) |
| first doses first strategies (C90) | expanded coverage (G52) |
| fractional dosing (Y60) | expanded coverage (G52) |