Working Paper: NBER ID: w30163
Authors: Bruce D. Meyer; Angela Wyse; Kevin Corinth
Abstract: Despite widespread concern about homelessness, fundamental questions about the size and characteristics of this hard to study population are unresolved, in large part because it is unclear whether existing data are sufficiently complete and reliable. We examine these questions as well as the coverage of new microdata sources that are designed to be nationally representative and will allow pathbreaking new analyses. We compare three restricted use data sources that have been largely unused to study homelessness to less detailed public data. In doing this triangulation of sources, we examine the completeness and accuracy of available data and improve our understanding of the size of the homeless population and its inclusion in the Census and household surveys. Specifically, we compare restricted data from the 2010 Census, American Community Survey (ACS), and Homeless Management Information System (HMIS) to HUD's public-use point-in-time (PIT) estimates and the Housing Inventory Count (HIC) at the national, city and county, and person level. We also develop a new approach to estimating the size of the sheltered homeless population using linked Census and HMIS shelter microdata. Our analyses suggest that on a given night there are about 600,000 people experiencing homelessness in the U.S., about one-third of whom are sleeping on the streets and two-thirds in shelters. More than 90 percent of those in shelters were counted in the Census, although many were classified as housed or in other group quarters, a result that stems largely from ambiguity in the definition of a homeless shelter. By establishing the broad coverage and reliability of the new data sources, this paper lays the foundation for pathbreaking future work on the characteristics, income, safety net participation, mortality, migration, geographic distribution, and housing status transitions of the U.S. homeless population.
Keywords: homelessness; data analysis; census; microdata; estimations
JEL Codes: J0; R0
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Census, ACS, PIT adjustments (C80) | more accurate reflection of underlying population characteristics (C83) |
| Definitions and methodologies (C80) | discrepancies in estimates of homelessness (I32) |
| Classification of facilities and transient nature (R53) | complications in accurate counting of homeless (C80) |
| Census methods (C80) | significant inclusion of homeless population (I32) |
| New approach to estimating sheltered homeless population size (C80) | estimate around 367,000 to 382,000 (C13) |
| Homeless population double-counted in Census (C80) | misrepresentation of true status (Z13) |
| Household surveys incorporating homeless individuals (C83) | foundation for future research (C90) |