Working Paper: NBER ID: w30119
Authors: Osea Giuntella; Lorenzo Rotunno; Luca Stella
Abstract: Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we analyze the effects of exposure to globalization on the fertility and marital behavior in Germany, until recently a lowest-low fertility setting. We find that exposure to greater import competition from Eastern Europe led to worse labor market outcomes and lower fertility rates. In contrast, workers in industries that benefited from increased exports had better employment prospects and higher fertility. These effects are driven by low-educated, married men, and full-time workers and reflect changes in the likelihood of having any child (extensive margin). While there is evidence of some fertility postponement, we find significant effects on completed fertility. There is instead little evidence of any significant impact on marital behavior.
Keywords: Globalization; Fertility; Marital Behavior; Trade Exposure; Labor Market
JEL Codes: F1; F16; J1; J13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Exposure to greater import competition from Eastern Europe (F69) | Decrease in fertility rates (J13) |
| Import competition (F14) | Negative impact on overall childbearing outcomes (J13) |
| Exposure to increased exports from Eastern Europe (F14) | Increase in fertility rates (J13) |
| Import competition (F14) | Negative impact on labor market outcomes (F66) |
| Labor market impacts (F66) | Drive fertility behavior (J13) |
| Import competition (F14) | Decline in divorce rates among women (J12) |