Working Paper: NBER ID: w30000
Authors: Melissa Schettini Kearney; Phillip B. Levine
Abstract: We document the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on births in the United States. First, using Vital Statistics birth data on the universe of US births, we show that the US pandemic initially was associated with a “baby bust” period, from August 2020 through February 2021. During these seven months, there were nearly 100,000 fewer births than predicted based on pre-existing birth trends and seasonality. Many of these missing births would have been conceived after the pandemic began in March of 2020, consistent with a behavioral fertility response to pandemic conditions. Other missing births would have been conceived before the onset of the pandemic. Some of these are attributable to reduced immigration of pregnant women and some to altered pregnancy outcomes for women who were pregnant during the early months of the pandemic. We further document a COVID birth rebound between March and September 2021, amounting to about 30,000 more births than predicted. Second, we document variation across US states in the size of the baby bust and rebound and investigate how that variation statistically relates to contextual factors. The bust was larger in states with larger increases in the unemployment rate, a larger reduction in household spending, and more COVID cases. The rebound was larger in states that experienced larger improvements in the labor market and household spending, consistent with a positive effect of economic conditions on birth rates, and smaller in places that had mask mandates, consistent with a dampening role of social anxiety about the ongoing pandemic.
Keywords: COVID-19; birth rates; fertility; economic conditions
JEL Codes: J13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| COVID-19 pandemic (H12) | Significant decline in U.S. births (J11) |
| Reduced conceptions during early months of pandemic (E32) | Missing births (J11) |
| Conceptions prior to pandemic not resulting in live births (J13) | Missing births (J11) |
| Improvements in labor market conditions (J48) | Rebound in births (J13) |
| States with larger increases in unemployment (J65) | Larger declines in birth rates during the bust (J19) |
| States with improved economic conditions (O51) | Larger rebounds in birth rates (J11) |
| States with mask mandates (H70) | Smaller rebounds in births (J19) |
| Higher unemployment (J64) | Lower fertility rates (J13) |
| Improved economic conditions (N14) | Higher birth rates (J19) |