Working Paper: NBER ID: w29986
Authors: Ethan M. L. McClure; Olivier Coibion; Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Abstract: Using responses obtained through the Nielsen Homescan panel survey, we explore the differences between managers’ and non-managers’ expectations and perceptions of inflation and unemployment. By and large, managers and non-managers exhibit similar average inflation and unemployment expectations as well as similar levels of disagreement and sensitivity to information provided in a randomized control trial. Finally, the inflation expectations of managers deviate systematically from the predictions of “anchored” expectations.
Keywords: Macroeconomic expectations; Inflation; Unemployment; Managers
JEL Codes: E3; E4; E5
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Managerial status (M54) | Expectations of inflation and unemployment (E31) |
| Managers' inflation expectations behave similarly to those of households (E31) | Managers' inflation expectations (E31) |
| Higher unemployment (J64) | Expectations of inflation and unemployment (E31) |
| Both groups exhibit similar sensitivities to information (D83) | Expectations of inflation and unemployment (E31) |
| Managers' inflation expectations are not anchored (D84) | Managers' inflation expectations (E31) |
| Heterogeneity in expectations across different types of managers (D84) | Expectations of inflation and unemployment (E31) |