Working Paper: NBER ID: w29969
Authors: William N. Evans; Maciej H. Kotowski
Abstract: We develop a theoretical model to explain both the high level and persistence in gun violence for black males ages 15–24 consistent with the empirical literature. A person may carry a gun for instrumental (i.e., criminal) reasons or for its perceived protective benefit. Discerning underlying motives is difficult. A shock to the instrumental benefit can move the equilibrium to one with a high gun prevalence. The model demonstrates that there are larger returns to reducing the value of guns for crime than trying to reduce their protective benefit, suggesting different policy paths to combat the problem of gun violence.
Keywords: gun violence; young black males; theoretical model; protection; instrumental value
JEL Codes: C72; K42
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Increase in the instrumental value of guns (H56) | Higher equilibrium of gun carrying (D50) |
| Higher equilibrium of gun carrying (D50) | Increases violence (D74) |
| Increase in the instrumental value of guns (H56) | Increases violence (D74) |
| Reducing the instrumental benefits of guns (H56) | Reducing violence (D74) |