Working Paper: NBER ID: w29896
Authors: Bradley Larsen; Marc J. Hetherington; Steven H. Greene; Timothy J. Ryan; Rahsaan D. Maxwell; Steven Tadelis
Abstract: We report a large-scale randomized controlled trial designed to assess whether the counter-stereotypical messaging and partisan cues can induce people to get COVID-19 vaccines. Our study involved creating a 27-second video compilation of Donald Trump’s comments about the vaccine from Fox News interviews. We presented the video to millions of U.S. YouTube users in October 2021. Results indicate that the campaign increased the number of vaccines in the average treated county by 103. Spread across 1,014 treated counties, the total effect of the campaign was an estimated increase of 104,036 vaccines. The campaign was cost-effective: with an overall budget of about $100,000, the cost to obtain an additional vaccine was about $1 or less.
Keywords: COVID-19; vaccination; partisan cues; counterstereotypical messaging; public health
JEL Codes: D8; I12; I18; M3
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| PSA featuring Donald Trump (I19) | increase in vaccinations attributable to the campaign (I14) |
| less extreme partisan counties (D72) | larger effects of PSA on vaccination rates (I14) |
| PSA featuring Donald Trump (I19) | COVID-19 vaccination rates (Y10) |