Working Paper: NBER ID: w29891
Authors: Ananth Seshadri; Anson Zhou
Abstract: Nearly 40% of births in the United States are unintended, and this phenomenon is disproportionately common among Black Americans and women with lower education. Given that being born to unprepared parents significantly affects children’s outcomes, could family planning access affect intergenerational persistence of economic status? We extend the standard Becker–Tomes model by incorporating an endogenous family planning choice. When the model is calibrated to match observed patterns of unintended fertility, we find that intergenerational mobility is significantly lower than that in the standard model. In a policy counterfactual where states improve access to family planning services for the poor, intergenerational mobility improves by 0.3 standard deviations on average. When we calibrate the model to match unintended birth rates by race, we find that differences in family planning access alone can account for 20% of the racial gap in upward mobility. Helping women fulfill their goals about family planning and childbearing can improve social mobility and address racial inequality.
Keywords: intergenerational mobility; family planning; unintended fertility; racial inequality
JEL Codes: E6; J11; J13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| family planning access (J13) | intergenerational mobility (J62) |
| unintended fertility (J13) | economic outcomes (F61) |
| family planning access (J13) | racial gap in upward mobility (J62) |
| equalizing family planning costs for black Americans to match whites (J78) | racial gap in upward mobility (J62) |
| equalizing family planning costs for black Americans to match whites (J78) | racial income gap (D31) |