Working Paper: NBER ID: w29870
Authors: Kevin Corinth; Bruce D. Meyer; Derek Wu
Abstract: This paper is the first to examine changes in poverty over time using a comprehensive set of linked survey and administrative data, implementing recommendations of the Interagency Technical Working Group on Evaluating Alternative Measures of Poverty. Using the Comprehensive Income Dataset (CID), we correct for measurement error in survey-reported incomes, focusing on single parent families from 1995 to 2016. Our preferred estimates indicate that single parent family poverty declined by 62% over time, while it fell by only 45% using survey data alone. Moreover, survey-reported deep poverty among single parent families increased over time, while it fell using the CID.
Keywords: poverty; single parent families; income data; welfare reform; administrative data
JEL Codes: C42; C81; I32; I38
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| single-parent family poverty declined by 62% using CID (J12) | single-parent family poverty declined by 45% using survey data (J12) |
| correcting for survey misreporting (C83) | true poverty trends (I32) |
| adjustments for taxes and nonmedical in-kind transfers (H29) | final poverty rate of 15.5% using CID (I32) |
| welfare reforms and tax credits (I38) | poverty rates (I32) |
| underreported incomes (H26) | perceptions of poverty trends (I32) |