Working Paper: NBER ID: w29865
Authors: Guillermo A. Calvo; Andrés Velasco
Abstract: We study the effects of monetary and fiscal policies when both money and government bonds provide liquidity services. Because money is the unit of account, the price of money is the inverse of the price level. If prices are sticky, so is the price of money in terms of goods, and this is one important reason why money is liquid and attractive. By contrast, the price of government bonds is free to jump and often does, especially in response to news about changes in fiscal policy and the supply of bonds. Those movements in government bond prices affect available liquidity, and therefore aggregate demand, inflation and output. Under these conditions, bond-financed fiscal expansions can be contractionary, causing deflation and a temporary recession. To avoid those effects, changes in bond supply must be matched by changes in money supply and in the interest rate on money. We conclude that in a liquidity-dependent world, fiscal and monetary policies are joined at the hip.
Keywords: Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy; Liquidity; Government Bonds; Economic Policy
JEL Codes: E12; E4; E42; E44; E52; E58; E62
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| bond-financed fiscal expansions (E62) | contractionary outcomes (E62) |
| government bond supply (H63) | aggregate demand (E00) |
| increased bond supply (E43) | liquidity squeeze (E51) |
| liquidity squeeze (E51) | bond prices fall (G12) |
| bond prices fall (G12) | yields rise (E43) |
| government prints money (E50) | output boom (E23) |
| increased real money balances (E51) | higher consumption (D12) |
| higher consumption (D12) | inflation (E31) |
| transitory increases in bond supply (E43) | expansionary effects (F41) |
| monetary policy must adjust (E52) | mitigate contractionary effects (E69) |