Working Paper: NBER ID: w29805
Authors: Nikolaj Broberg; Vincent Pons; Clemence Tricaud
Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of campaign finance rules on electoral outcomes. In French departmental and municipal elections, candidates competing in districts above 9,000 inhabitants face spending limits and are eligible for public reimbursement. Using an RDD around the population threshold, we find that these rules increase competitiveness and benefit the runner-up of the previous race as well as new candidates, in departmental elections, while leaving the polarization of results and winners’ representativeness and quality unaffected. Incumbents are less likely to get reelected because they are less likely to run and obtain a lower vote share, conditional on running. These results appear to be driven by the reimbursement of campaign expenditures, not spending limits. We do not find such effects in municipal elections, which we attribute to the use of a proportional list system instead of plurality voting.
Keywords: campaign finance; electoral outcomes; public reimbursement
JEL Codes: D72; K16; P16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| campaign finance rules (G38) | electoral outcomes (K16) |
| spending limits and public reimbursement (H72) | electoral competitiveness in departmental elections (D72) |
| spending limits and public reimbursement (H72) | incumbents' reelection probability (D72) |
| spending limits and public reimbursement (H72) | previous runner-up winning probability (D79) |
| spending limits and public reimbursement (H72) | outsider candidate winning probability (D79) |
| spending limits and public reimbursement (H72) | incumbents' probability of running for reelection (D72) |
| spending limits and public reimbursement (H72) | previous challenger's candidacy likelihood (D79) |
| conditional on running (C62) | incumbents' winning probability (D79) |
| conditional on running (C62) | previous runner-up winning probability (D79) |
| reimbursement of campaign expenditures (I22) | electoral outcomes (K16) |
| spending limits (H72) | electoral outcomes (K16) |